The true fatality rate of Covid-19 is still unclear

Technically it could never be known or clear.
Unless everyone who has passed on is tested.
 
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I think the way things are going most of these predictions are made so they can say I predicted that.
According to me you must take the world population, the infections,the deaths the recoveries and the recovery rate including the adhering and non adhering and then only will you come close to a figure that makes sense.
And if you want it to look at a country like say South Africa you need to look at the reckless, non adhering and the folk that has no option,but to leave the house for supplies as well.comparing to total population including immigrants and visitors. Along with the adhering compared to the total population. Combined with the infected, recovered and deaths so far.

It's not so complicated but it's hard to put all those together if you don't know exactly what you're working with and estimates are the only option.
The better thing would be to look at trends and this is what's working right now.
 
there is a lot of sense in what he’s saying but the true fatality rate can eventually only be calculated and I prefer to say estimated at the end of the pandemic. You cannot measure your average speed in the beginning of the race but you can only make predictions and projections which are not necessarily accurate and you need to review them constantly as new information on the traffic, weather conditions etc. keeps coming in.
The fatality rate will certainly vary from country to country depending on the age distribution, the burden of disease, the state of the healthcare system, the government style of managing the epidemic and the responsiveness of the population to social distancing measures...
 
So, what is the information stated on the "death certificate" right now, just a guess?
I think what @M.Adhir is saying is that there are probably cases of people who have died due to covid but they were never diagnosed so their deaths dont get recorded as covid deaths. I doubt autopsies are being done world wide on every death that occurs. I dont know a lot about how these things work but thats my understanding
 
I think what @M.Adhir is saying is that there are probably cases of people who have died due to covid but they were never diagnosed so their deaths dont get recorded as covid deaths. I doubt autopsies are being done world wide on every death that occurs. I dont know a lot about how these things work but thats my understanding

Agreed, as well as people with terminal diseases like stage 4 cancer for example, who were tipped over the edge EARLY by covid.
 
Yes and if a patient dies of heart failure due to less oxygen in the blood stream due to Corona infection.
Does it get listed as a Corona - or a heart failure?
 
there is a lot of sense in what he’s saying but the true fatality rate can eventually only be calculated and I prefer to say estimated at the end of the pandemic. You cannot measure your average speed in the beginning of the race but you can only make predictions and projections which are not necessarily accurate and you need to review them constantly as new information on the traffic, weather conditions etc. keeps coming in.
The fatality rate will certainly vary from country to country depending on the age distribution, the burden of disease, the state of the healthcare system, the government style of managing the epidemic and the responsiveness of the population to social distancing measures...

I understand what you are saying.
My question was more tovards statements like: "many experts believe..."
Science that I was studying, was always about the provable data, not beliefs.
 
So, what is the information stated on the "death certificate" right now, just a guess?

When a patient with HIV passes they don't write HIV on the certificate but rather the secondary condition that is formed because of it. like pneumonia or TB. Technically HIV doesn't kill but lowers the immune system to let another opertunistic disease take over. So it's not incorrect. And then there's also the ethical thing around HIV.

Now my opinion (not to be taken as fact) is a lot of people that passes that got Covid-19 is declared dead due to the symptons like pneumonia. Especially if its people with pre-conditions. Therefore a lot could go under the radar.
 
I understand what you are saying.
My question was more tovards statements like: "many experts believe..."
Science that I was studying, was always about the provable data, not beliefs.

It's 2020 my brother. Now it's about how people feel. If your data offends it's subject to scrutiny.
 
I understand what you are saying.
My question was more tovards statements like: "many experts believe..."
Science that I was studying, was always about the provable data, not beliefs.

The fact is there is not enough data. We work from projections and simulations to try and predict what is going to happen. I believe Cyril had over 60 such graphs, projections and scenarios to work from before he extended the lockdown.
 
The fact is there is not enough data. We work from projections and simulations to try and predict what is going to happen. I believe Cyril had over 60 such graphs, projections and scenarios to work from before he extended the lockdown.

So, basically we did shut down the World, based on the rough guesstimates.
 
Yes and if a patient dies of heart failure due to less oxygen in the blood stream due to Corona infection.
Does it get listed as a Corona - or a heart failure?
In the UK they are being recorded as complications due to Covid-19 so getting recorded as Covid-19 deaths but can't speak for other countries.
 
I think what @M.Adhir is saying is that there are probably cases of people who have died due to covid but they were never diagnosed so their deaths dont get recorded as covid deaths. I doubt autopsies are being done world wide on every death that occurs. I dont know a lot about how these things work but thats my understanding

I agree, that is possible, but then it's also possible that some deaths due to other causes are misrepresented as Covid.
 
The fact is unless every single person who gets infected is tested which just isn't going to happen as some people don't get symptoms and just act as carriers while others get so mild symptoms they don't think it's actually coronavirus they have exact mortality rates would be guessing. Mortality rates seem to differ from country to country with the one positive being in Germany where a lot of tests have been carried out mortality rates seem quite low unlike the UK where it's a lot higher but then people are only being tested once very ill so those just self isolating with mild symptoms at home are not part of the stats, if they were our mortality rate would be lower.
 
I understand what you are saying.
My question was more tovards statements like: "many experts believe..."
Science that I was studying, was always about the provable data, not beliefs.
Keep in mind that the virus was only identified less than 4 months ago and the studies that were conducted so far are essentially of small scale and uncontrolled as the healthcare systems are overwhelmed with the pandemic. To have accurate and reliable information we need to conduct large scale controlled studies in order to minimize all sorts of sample biases. Nevertheless, this is not a completely new virus as it’s part of a family of viruses that caused many epidemics in the past like for instance the virus of the common cold. Based on that we can make rough guesstimates about it’s case fatality rate amongst other things...
On the death certificates, practitioners put the most likely cause of death as primary cause and all the chronic conditions that may have contributed to the death like AIDS, Asthma, heart or kidney failure etc. as secondary causes(s) of death.
Large scale studies are underway in many countries including SA so we will have more accurate figures in a few months.
 
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death#does-the-news-reflect-what-we-die-from

Causes-of-death-in-USA-vs.-media-coverage-716x550.png


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